Slow economic recovery looms

Slow economic recovery loomsThe Economic Survey tried to paint a realistic picture of the economy, pegging gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 5.4-5.9 per cent for 2014-15, after it had dropped to below five per cent in the previous two years. A day ahead of the Budget, it prescribed the government to go for fiscal consolidation and simplify tax policies to revive the investment climate.

The Survey, presented in Parliament by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, wanted the government to rein in inflation and ease procedures for higher growth.

Even then, economic growth could tilt towards the lower end — 5.4 per cent — of the projected band this financial year and it might not be before 2016-17 that the economy would revert to seven to eight per cent annual growth, cautioned the Survey.

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India to grow at 5.3 per cent in current fiscal: Ficci

India to grow at 5.3 per cent in current fiscal: FicciSource: The Economic Times, Jul 08, 2014

NEW DELHI: Ahead of the Economic Survey, industry body Ficci today lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal, pegging India’s economic expansion rate at 5.3 per cent compared to its 5.5 per cent previous estimate.

This is mainly due to bleak prospects for performance of the agriculture sector due to sub-par monsoon forecast.

“FICCI’s latest Economic Outlook Survey puts across the GDP growth estimate for the year 2014-15 at 5.3 per cent, with a minimum and a maximum range of 4.9 per cent and 5.8 per cent,” a statement said.

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India Inc sees GDP growth of 5-6% in FY15

Source: The Economic Times, Jun 19, 2014

MUMBAI: As many as 81 per cent of Indian corporates believe the country’s economy is likely to grow 5-6 per cent in the current financial year, says a survey.

“India Inc expects the economy to grow between 5-6 per cent and rupee around 77 per cent to appreciate against the dollar,” according to a survey by ING Vysya Bank.

Around 67 per cent respondents see the rupee to be at or below 60 for FY’15.

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Stage set for high GDP growth

Source: Business Standard, May 27, 2014

Now that equity markets have run their course, it’s time to see fundamental justification for the rally. A strong government at the centre without any coalition pressures will have no excuses for non-performance if they fail to deliver.

Analysts and economists have been bullish on the new government not only on expectations of a push to the reform process but also because of improving global scenario. A report by Indranil Sen Gupta and Abhishek Gupta of Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoAML) says that India is likely to overtake Brazil and Russia to become the second largest BRIC nation by 2017.

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With Narendra Modi in charge, economy may grow at 7% in FY16: Economists

Narendra Modi Source: The Economic Times, May 19, 2014

NEW DELHI: The mandate for a stable BJP-led government at the Centre has led economists to bet on an economic growth of 6.5-7% in 2015-16 even as they await policy initiatives by the incoming government to take a call on revising their estimates for the current fiscal.

Although foreign investors have pumped in more than Rs 1 lakh crore in the Indian stock market since Narendra Modi’s anointment as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate in September last year, economists are not in a hurry to revise their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for 2014-15.

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Indian economy to gain momentum, may grow 4.9% this year: OECD

indian-economy-to-gain-momentum-may-grow-4-9-this-year-oecdSource: Business Standard, May 06, 2014

London: India’s economic growth is poised to inch up 4.9% in 2014 and is expected to gain momentum with a decline in “political uncertainty” after the general elections, although rising bad loans would weigh on recovery, Paris-based think-tank OECD said today.

The estimate by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for 2014 is higher than 4.5% growth projected for 2013.

India’s GDP is expected to pick up further momentum and grow 5.9% in 2015, according to OECD’s latest economic outlook report.

The Indian economy has slowed and growth plummeted to a decade-low of 4.5% in 2012-13.

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India Ratings pegs FY15 growth at 5.6%

Source: Business Standard, Apr 29, 2014

New Delhi: Fitch group entity India Ratings on Monday kept its growth forecast for 2014-15 unchanged at 5.6 per cent, despite the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting a sub-normal monsoon this year. The official estimate for growth in 2013-14 is 4.9 per cent, against a decade-low of 4.5 per cent in 2012-13.

In a report, the rating agency said though the worst appeared to be over, it was unlikely the Indian economy would shift to a high-growth phase of about nine per cent through the next two-three years. “The agency believes the economy, at this point of time, is delicately balanced and requires a serious policy push to return to the high-growth path,” the report said.

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India likely to see weak economic growth, says OECD

Source: The Economic Times, Apr 08, 2014

LONDON: India and many major emerging economies are expected to see weak growth even as prospects have stabilised in most of the advanced countries, says a report by Paris-based think-tank OECD.
Besides India, Brazil and Russia are likely to witness economic growth weakening whereas the prospects look better for China. The conclusions of OECD are based on Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs).

“CLIs, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to weakening growth in major emerging economies, with the exception of China, where the CLI points to growth remaining around trend. CLIs point to growth below trend in Brazil and India, and to growth losing momentum in Russia,” OECD said today.

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India to grow at 5.5% in FY15: Ficci

Source: Business Standard, Mar 30, 2014

New Delhi: India’s economic growth is likely to pick up and reach 5.5 per cent in 2014-15 as industrial output will recover to expand at 3.3 per cent, says Ficci.

The Economic Outlook Survey by the industry chamber pegs agriculture and services sector growth in the next financial year, starting April 1, at 3.3 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively.

It also estimates that growth in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal will pick up marginally to 5 per cent.

“However, this might imply that actual growth in the year 2013-14 will be slightly lower than the growth of 4.9% projected by the Central Statistical Organization some time back,” Ficci said.

On inflation, it said that majority of the participating economists felt that going ahead both WPI and retail inflation rates would remain range bound.      Inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is expected to stay at about 5.5 per cent in 2014-15 and the one based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be at about 7.9 per cent, as per the survey.

On CPI becoming the new anchor for the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy, the opinion was divided. Some economists felt that it is a good indicator, while others were of the opinion that monetary policy decision on the basis of a single parameter may not be a correct approach.

Moreover, they said that CPI is a fairly new series available only since 2011 and hence does not adequately portray the underlying trends.      Further, the median forecast for fiscal deficit as a per cent of GDP stands at 4.4 per cent for 2014-15. This is higher than the 4.1 per cent estimate announced in the Interim Budget last month. Subsidy burden continues to be a bothering factor and can lead to fiscal slippages, according to the economists polled by Ficci.

On the external sector, the survey pegs current account deficit (CAD) to remain in the comfort zone at 2.2 per cent in 2014-15.

Moreover, the rupee value is projected at 61 against the US dollar by March-end 2015.

The participating economists cited high cost of borrowing and delays in government approvals as the key reasons hindering investments.

GDP may grow 5.6% next fiscal: India Ratings

GDPSource: The Hindu Business Line, Mar 06, 2014

New Delhi: The economy is likely to grow 5.6 per cent in the next fiscal, India Ratings and Research has said. This is lower than the Government’s estimate of 6 per cent.

IMF has projected a growth rate of 5.4 per cent while NCAER says it will be 5.6 per cent. The World Bank has given most optimistic estimate of 6 per cent. Growth in 2013-14 is estimated at 4.9 per cent.

“The economic growth in FY15 (2014-15) is likely to be contributed majorly by the industrial sector, which is estimated to grow by 4.1 per cent. This is good news for centre as well state government finances,” it said in a report on public finances. State finances were likely to remain resilient to the slowdown, it said, estimating some slippage in the fiscal deficit of states, which could go up to 2.3 per cent against 2.2 per cent in 2013-14. Read the rest of this entry »

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