IMF cuts India’s growth forecast for 3 years

Source: The Economic Times, Apr 09, 2019

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has pared India’s growth forecast for the just-concluded fiscal and the next two years, citing softer recent growth and weaker global outlook, but expects the country to retain its place as the fastest growing major economy.

According to IMF estimates, India’s economy grew 7.1% in FY19 and is expected to accelerate to 7.3% growth this fiscal and to 7.5% in FY21. All the estimates are 0.2 percentage points less than its previous assessment in January.

The IMF numbers are higher than those of the Reserve Bank of India, which had last week cut its growth forecast to 7.2% for this fiscal and 7.4% for FY21. Read the rest of this entry »

RBI lowers GDP growth forecast to 7.2% for 2019-20

Source: The Economic Times, Apr 04, 2019

The RBI Thursday lowered the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.4 per cent amid probability of El Nino effects on monsoon rains and uncertain global economic outlook.

In its February monetary policy statement, the central bank had projected the GDP growth for 2019-20 at 7.4 per cent — 7.2-7.4 per cent in first half of the fiscal (April-September).

Since then, there are some signs of domestic investment activity weakening as reflected in a slowdown in production and imports of capital goods, it said after the three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

“The moderation of growth in the global economy might impact India’s exports,” the central bank said.

On the positive side, the RBI said, higher financial flows to the commercial sector augur well for economic activity. Read the rest of this entry »

India’s GDP growth slips to 6.6 per cent in Q3

Source: The Economic Times, Feb 28, 2019

India’s GDP growth has slipped to 6.6 per cent in the third quarter of FY19.

The economy had grown 7.1% in the second quarter and 8.2% in the first quarter, logging 7.6% for the first half.

Weaker domestic and external demand are key factors behind the sub-7 percent growth. India would still be growing faster than China’s 6.4 percent growth in the same quarter.

Q1 has been revised to 8% from 8.2% earlier and Q2 has been revised to 7% from 7.12% earlier. Read the rest of this entry »

SBI Research pegs Q3 GDP at 6.6-6.7%

Source: The Economic Times, Feb 25, 2019

The economy is likely to grow at 6.6-6.7 percent in the third quarter and 7.2 percent for the full financial year, says report.

The yearly SBI composite index for February saw a marginally rise to 50.60 (a score of under 50 indicates negative growth).

The index remained volatile and declined to 11-month low of 46.10 (low decline) in February from 52.8 (moderate growth) in January.

“Based on the annual performance of these leading indicators, we are expecting GDP to grow around 6.6-6.7 percent in the December quarter, SBI Research said Monday. Read the rest of this entry »

Revised numbers for FY17, FY18 show economy grew much faster

NEW DELHI: India’s economy expanded at a much faster rate than initially estimated in the last two fiscal years, according to revised numbers released by the government, which show that growth remained high despite disruptions from demonetisation and the rollout of goods and services tax.

The statistics office on Thursday revised the growth rate for India’s gross domestic product for fiscal 2017 to 8.2% from the 7.1% reported earlier. The government had announced demonetisation on November 8, 2016, partly impacting the fiscal year through March 2017.

The growth estimate for fiscal 2018, the first full year after demonetisation and which also included the first nine months of GST, was raised to 7.2% from 6.7% in the first revised estimates for FY18. The data indicate a sharper slowdown between the two years than estimated earlier.

The gap widened to a full percentage point from 0.4 percentage point earlier.

Growth for FY16 was revised down to 8% from the 8.2% estimated earlier, partly magnifying the growth for FY17, the best year of growth for the Narendra Modi government.

The revisions are likely to further politicise the country’s statics, as they show the BJP-led NDA widening the lead over the previous UPA regime in terms of growth. The average growth in the five years of the NDA works out to 7.6% against 6.7% for the UPA-2, as per the back-series growth data released earlier this year.

“There is an all-round upward revision across all sectors, led by agriculture,” said DK Joshi, chief economist at Crisil.

The statistics offices said the revision was on account of use of latest available data on agricultural and industrial production, government expenditure, and also more comprehensive numbers from source agencies like the Ministry of Corporate Affairs and Nabard.
Read the rest of this entry »

GDP growth likely to be tad higher at 7.5% in FY20, says India Ratings and Research

Source: The Economic Times, Jan 17, 2019

NEW DELHI: The country’s economy is likely to grow a tad higher at 7.5 per cent in 2019-20 on account of steady improvement in major sectors — industry and services, said India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) Thursday.

According to the advance estimates of the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the economy may clock a growth rate of 7.2 per cent in the current financial year, up from 6.7 per cent in the previous year.

Ind-Ra, a Fitch Group company, expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be a “tad higher” at 7.5 per cent in fiscal 2019-20.

After demonetisation and the GST implementation, the agency had expected 2018-19 to be a year of quick recovery and, indeed, the recovery has been sharp with GDP growth coming in at 7.2 per cent, it said.

It further said GDP growth would have been even better but for the global headwinds caused by an abrupt rise in crude oil prices and strengthening of the US dollar, among other factors.

“However, GDP growth in 2019-20 will be more dispersed and evenly balanced across sectors as well as demand-side growth drivers,” Ind-Ra said.

Over the past few years, private final consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure have been the primary growth drivers of Indian economic growth.

Ind-Ra said it believes that investments are slowly but steadily gaining traction, with gross fixed capital formation growing 12.2 per cent in the current fiscal and projected to clock 10.3 per cent in the next year.

“This is certainly a comforting development, but the flip side of this development is that it is primarily driven by the government capex (capital expenditure), as incremental private corporate capex has yet to revive” it said.

It further said that due to the slowdown in private corporate and household capex, GDP growth has failed to accelerate and sustain itself close to or in excess of 8 per cent.

India to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19: Government

Source: The Economic Times, Jan 08, 2019

NEW DELHI: The Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19, a tad higher from 6.7 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly due to improvement in the performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors, the Central Statistics Office said Monday.

Releasing the first advance estimates of National Income for 2018-19, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said, “The growth in GDP during 2018-19 is estimated at 7.2 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 6.7 per cent in 2017-18.”

“Real GVA (Gross Value Added) is anticipated to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal as against 6.5 per cent in 2017-18,” it said.

According to the CSO data, the expansion in activities in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ is likely to increase to 3.8 per cent in the current fiscal from 3.4 per cent in the preceding year.

The growth of manufacturing sector is expected to accelerate to 8.3 per cent this fiscal, up from 5.7 per cent in 2017-18.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had expanded by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 and 8.2 per cent in 2015-16.