GDP growth to slip to 7 per cent in H2 of FY19: Report

download.jpgSource: The Economic Times, Feb 05, 2018

MUMBAI: The economy will growth 7.5 per cent level in the first half on a lower base, but will slip down to 7 per cent in the second half of the next fiscal, says a foreign brokerage. Even with the jump, it will continue to trend 1 percentage point lower than the potential growth of the economy, analysts at the Bank of America Meryll Lynch said in a report today.
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At 7-7.5% GDP growth, Survey bets big on FY19

download (5).jpgSource: The Hindu Business Line, Jan 29, 2018

New Delhi: The Chief Economic Adviser, Arvind Subramanian, the architect of Economic Survey 2017-18, has painted a more optimistic picture of the economy by scaling up the GDP growth projection for this fiscal to 6.75 per cent and the growth forecast for the next year to 7-7.5 per cent.

The Survey was tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Monday.

The forecasts were weighed down by rising global crude oil prices and the expected financial requirements of the general elections in 2019.

Coming just two days ahead of the government’s last full Budget (2018-19) for the current term, to be presented on February 1, the Survey has advocated a modest consolidation in the fiscal deficit and has suggested that the government focus on finishing its ongoing reforms in agriculture and GST.

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GDP may grow to 7% in FY19 as GST impact wanes: HSBC

6.jpgSource: The Hindu Business Line, Jan 24, 2018

Mumbai: HSBC today said waning effects from the GST impact will help push the Indian GDP growth to 7 per cent in FY19. It can be noted that the International Monetary Fund has come out with an estimate of 7.4 per cent growth two days ago.

“For India, we are expecting the economy to grow in the next three years (FY18-20) by 6.5 per cent, 7 per cent and 7.6 per cent,” the bank’s chief economist Pranjul Bhandari told reporters on a conference call. She added that the growth has slid from previous year’s 7.1 per cent to 6.5 per cent in FY18 due to the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

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IMF forecasts 7.4% growth for India in FY19

Source: The Economic Times, Jan 23, 2018

NEW DELHI: On the eve of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s keynote address at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said India’s growth will pick up in FY19. That will see the country regain the tag of fastest-growing major economy, backing the government’s revival theme. The IMF also said 2017 saw the best global growth in seven years.

India is forecast to grow 7.4% in FY19 against 6.7% this year, gaining pace to 7.8% in FY20, the IMF said in its January update of the World Economic Outlook: Brighter Prospects, Optimistic Markets, Challenges Ahead that was released simultaneously in Davos and Washington. Modi will address the WEF opening plenary session on Tuesday. The global economy is expected to grow 3.9% this year, faster than 3.7% forecast earlier in October. India’s growth remains unchanged from the October forecast. “Some 120 economies, accounting for three quarters of world GDP, have seen a pickup in growth in year-on-year terms in 2017, the broadest synchronised global growth upsurge since 2010,” the IMF said. In the current year, China will grow 6.8%, just ahead of India but will slip to 6.6% next year. Read the rest of this entry »

India likely to be fifth largest economy in 2018

Source: Business Standard, Dec 27, 2017

London: India looks set to leapfrog Britain and France next year to become the world’s fifth-largest economy in dollar terms, a report showed on Tuesday.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) consultancy’s 2018 World Economic League Table painted an upbeat view of the global economy, boosted by cheap energy and technology prices.

India’s ascent is part of a trend that will see Asian economies increasingly dominate the top 10 largest economies over the next 15 years. “Despite temporary setbacks … India’s economy has still caught up with that of France and the UK and in 2018 will have overtaken them both to become the world’s fifth largest economy in dollar terms,” said Douglas McWilliams, Cebr deputy chairman. Read the rest of this entry »

India’s GDP to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2018: Nomura

Source: The Economic Times, Dec 24, 2017

NEW DELHI: Indian economy is expected to witness sharp recovery in the January-March quarter and its GDP growth likely to be around 7.5 per cent for 2018, says a Nomura report.

According to Japanese financial services major Nomura’s Composite Leading Index (CLI), some growth consolidation is likely in the Q4 (October-December), followed by a sharp recovery in Q1 (January-March) 2018 due to ongoing remonetisation and improving global demand.

“We remain bullish on the growth outlook. We expect GDP growth to rise to 6.7 per cent year-on-year in Q4 (October- December) from 6.3 per cent in Q3 (July-September), followed by a stronger rebound to 7.5 per cent in 2018,” Nomura said in a research note. Read the rest of this entry »

ADB lowers India’s GDP forecast for FY18 to 6.7%

Source: The Hindu Business Line, Dec 13, 2017

New Delhi: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered India’s GDP forecast for the current fiscal by 0.3 per cent to 6.7 per cent, attributing it to tepid growth in the first half, demonetisation and transitory challenges of tax sector reforms.

It has also revised downwards the gross domestic product (GDP) outlook for next fiscal beginning from March 2018 to 7.3 per cent from 7.4 per cent mainly due to rising global crude oil prices and soft growth in private sector investment.

“Owing to tepid growth in the first half of 2017-18, the lingering effects of demonetisation in November 2016, transitory challenges of a new tax system, and some risks to agriculture stemming from a spotty monsoon in 2017, the economy is now expected to grow by 6.7 per cent, slower than the 7 per cent forecast in the (September) Update,” ADB said in a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) today.

India, the largest economy South Asia, rebounded to 6.3 per cent growth in the second quarter of this fiscal from 5.7 per cent in the first quarter, reversing five consecutive quarters of deceleration.

However, ADO supplement expects growth to pick up in the remaining two quarters of 2017-18 as the government is implementing measures to ease compliance with the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) as well as bank recapitalisation.