Indian GDP may moderate to 7.2% in second half of 2018

download (2).jpgSource: The Economic Times, Jul 31, 2018

The Indian economy is likely to have witnessed solid economic growth in the April-June quarter but leading indicators suggest a slowdown in the coming months, says a Nomura report. According to the global financial services major, India’s economic recovery has peaked and growth rates are likely to get constrained in the second half of this year.

“Our proprietary indicators suggest the inflection point for the cyclical recovery may just be around the corner,” Nomura said in a research note.

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IMF trims India’s economic growth forecast to 7.3% in 2018, 7.5% in 2019

Source: Business Standard, Jul 17, 2018

New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has trimmed India’s growth projection by 0.1 percentage point for 2018-19 owing to high oil prices and a tight monetary policy regime.

The effect of the twin headwinds on the IMF’s projection for 2019-20 was much sharper — 0.3 percentage points.

Now, the IMF has forecast India will grow by 7.3 per cent in 2018-19 against the earlier estimate of 7.4 per cent. The economy was projected to grow 7.8 per cent by 2019-20 by the Fund earlier, but now the projection stood at 7.5 per cent, according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, released on Monday.

Even then, the economy would be the fastest-growing one among large nations in 2018-19 and 2019-20.

India’s economy grew at a four-year-low of 6.7 per cent in 2017-18. Read the rest of this entry »

IMF suggests India three steps to sustain high growth rate

Source: The Economic times, Jun 29, 2018

WASHINGTON: To sustain the high growth rate India has achieved, the country should carry out banking sector reforms; continue with fiscal consolidation, simplify and streamline GST; and renew impetus on reforms, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today.

India’s growth accelerated to 7.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of Financial Year (FY) 2017-18. That was up from 7 per cent in the previous quarter.

“We expect the recovery to continue in FY 2018-19. Growth is projected at 7.4 per cent in FY 2018-19 and actually 7.8 percent in FY 19-20, respectively,” IMF Communications Director Gerry Rice told reporters at his fortnightly news conference. Read the rest of this entry »

CAD widens to 1.9% of GDP in Q4FY18

download (1).jpgSource: The Economic Times, Jun 13, 2018

Higher software exports and remittances have failed to salvage the current account deficit which rose to 1.4% of GDP pushing the import bill from 0.4% of GDP a year ago on account of rising crude and commodity prices.

Current account deficit (CAD), the excess of a country’s imports over exports rose to $ 13.0 billion or 1.9 per cent of GDP in Q4 of 2017-18 , up from $ 2.6 billion or 0.4 per cent of GDP in Q4 of 2016 -17, but moderated marginally from $ 13.7 billion or2.1 per cent of GDP in the Q3 of 2017-18, according to the preliminary numbers released by the Reserve Bank of India.

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World Bank forecasts 7.3 per cent growth for India in FY2018-2019

download (4).jpgSource: Business Standard, Jun 07, 2018

Washington: The World Bank has forecast a growth rate of 7.3 per cent for India this year and 7.5 per cent for the next two years, making it the fastest growing country among major emerging economies.

A top World Bank official said India’s economy is robust, resilient and has potential to deliver sustained growth.Growth in India is projected to advance 7.3 per cent in Fiscal Year (FY) 2018/19 (April 1, 2018-March 31, 2019) and 7.5 per cent in FY 2019/20, reflecting robust private consumption and strengthening investment, the bank said in its June 2018 edition of the Global Economic Prospect report.

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Q4 GDP growth seen at 7.1%: Ficci survey

Source: The Economic Times, May 29, 2018

India’s GDP growth is expected at 7.1 per cent for the January-March quarter of the last fiscal and 6.6 per cent for the entire 2017-18, industry body Ficci said today.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is scheduled to release GDP numbers for the fourth quarter as well as the 2017-18 fiscal on May 31.

The GDP growth in the third quarter (October-December 2017-18) is seen at 7.2 per cent, and for the entire last fiscal (2017-18), it is projected at 6.6 per cent at constant prices, as per CSO data. Read the rest of this entry »

India fastest growing economy at 7.4 per cent in 2018: IMF

Source: The Economic Times, May 09, 2018

United Nations, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reaffirmed on Wednesday that India will be the fastest growing major economy in 2018, with a growth rate of 7.4 per cent that rises to 7.8 per cent in 2019 with medium-term prospects remaining positive.

The IMF’s Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook report said that India was recovering from the effects of demonetisation and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax and “the recovery is expected to be underpinned by a rebound from transitory shocks as well as robust private consumption.”

Medium-term consumer price index inflation “is forecast to remain within but closer to the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation-targeting banda of four per cent with a plus or minus two per cent change, the report said.

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