GDP growth likely to decelerate to 7.5-7.6% in Q2: Report

Source: The Hindu Business Line, Nov 26, 2018

New Delhi: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the September quarter is expected to decelerate to 7.5-7.6 per cent over the previous three-month period mainly due to slowdown in rural demand, a State Bank of India (SBI) research report said Monday.

The GDP growth at constant prices (2011-12) was 8.2 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2018-19.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will be releasing the estimates for GDP growth for July-September on Friday.

The ‘SBI Ecowrap’ report said the SBI Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), a basket of 21 leading indicators for September quarter of the current fiscal, is showing a marginal declining trend.

Consequently, the headline second quarter Gross Value Added (GVA) growth could be 7.3-7.4 per cent, due to the slowing of rural demand, it said. Read the rest of this entry »


CAD may narrow to 2.6% of GDP in FY19 on falling oil prices, says report

Source: Business Standard, Nov 22, 2018

Mumbai: Following a decline in oil prices, the country’s current account deficit (CAD) is expected to touch 2.6 per cent of GDP in the current financial year against an earlier expectation of 2.8 per cent, a report said.

Fiscal deficit in the first half of FY19 has already reached 95.3 per cent of full-year budget estimates (BE).

Total receipts for the six months period is Rs 7.09 trillion (39 per cent of BE) and the total expenditure is estimated at Rs 13.04 trillion (53.4 per cent of BE).

“The recent decline in oil prices might compress the CAD by around $5-6 billion from our estimates of $78 billion. This will imply CAD settling down at 2.6 per cent of GDP (previously 2.8 per cent of GDP),” according to an SBI Research report.

The report earlier stated that CAD may touch 2.8 per cent of GDP in the current financial year on a surge in crude oil prices and moderate growth in exports. Read the rest of this entry »

India’s economic growth to slow to 7.3% in 2019: Moody’s

Source: The Economic Times, Nov 08, 2018

India’s economic growth is expected to moderate to 7.3% in 2019 and 2020, ratings company Moody’s said, warning of a credit squeeze for non-banking financial entities.

“Downside risks from a prolonged liquidity squeeze for non-bank financial institutions, which could lead to a sharper slowdown in their credit provision, remain,” Moody’s Investors Service said on Thursday.

Higher oil prices combined with rupee depreciation and monetary tightening are also likely to dampen domestic demand, it said. The global credit rating company said the greatest downside risk to India’s growth prospects stem from concerns about its financial sector.

Stating that borrowing costs have already risen on higher interest rates, Moody’s expects the Reserve Bank of India to continue to steadily increase the benchmark rate through 2019, which will further dampen domestic demand. Read the rest of this entry »

IMF retains India FY19 growth outlook at 7.3%

Source: The Economic Times, Oct 09, 2018

New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained its India growth forecast for the current year and marginally pared it for next fiscal, citing the drag from higher crude prices and tightening of the global financial situation. But it will remain the fastest-growing major economy, well ahead of China, it said.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF said India will grow 7.3% in FY19 and 7.4% in FY20. It had in January forecast FY20 growth at 7.5%. China is forecast to grow 6.6% and 6.2% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. The Indian economy grew 6.7% in FY18.

“This acceleration reflects a rebound from transitory shocks (the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the national goods and services tax), with strengthening investment and robust private consumption,” the IMF said. The forecast for investment growth in FY19 is weaker than in April, despite higher capital spending. Read the rest of this entry »

Fitch ups India’s growth forecast to 7.8% for FY19

Source: The Economic Times, Sept 22, 2018

Fitch Ratings Friday upped India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.8 per cent, from 7.4 per cent earlier, but flagged rising oil bill and higher interest rates as key concerns.

Fitch, in its Global Economic Outlook, said it expects inflation to rise to the upper end of the central bank’s target band (4 per cent, plus-minus 2 per cent) on relatively high demand-pull pressures and rupee depreciation. “We have revised up our forecast for FY2018-2019 growth to 7.8 per cent from 7.4 per cent on the back of the better-than-expected 2Q18 outturn. India’s growth likely peaked in 2Q18 (April-June) though,” Fitch said.
Read the rest of this entry »

Moody’s puts India growth in 2018, 2019 at 7.5%

download (1)Source: The Economic Times, Aug 23, 2018

NEW DELHI: The Indian economy is largely resilient to external pressures and is expected to grow around 7.5% in 2018 and 2019, Moody’s Investors Service said. In its Global Macro Outlook for 2018-19, Moody’s said growth is supported by strong urban and rural demand and improved industrial activity, pointing to the strong PMI and the index of 8 core industries.

Read the rest of this entry »

India’s GDP Expected To Grow At 7.4% In FY19 According To FICCI Economic Outlook

Source: Business Standard, Aug 17, 2018

New Delhi: The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey forecasts an annual median GDP growth at 7.4% for 2018-19, with a minimum and maximum range of 7.1% and 7.5%, respectively. The projection is in line with the estimates put out by the Reserve Bank earlier this month.

The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3.0% for 2018-19, with a minimum and maximum range of 2.4% and 4.3%, respectively. The favourable monsoons are expected to bode well for the sector. Although there has been some slippage in the monsoons during the months of June and July, updated forecast for August and September indicate a pick-up in rainfall. Further, industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.9% and 8.3%, respectively in 2018-19.

The survey was conducted during the month of July 2018 amongst economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. Read the rest of this entry »