IMF retains India FY19 growth outlook at 7.3%

Source: The Economic Times, Oct 09, 2018

New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained its India growth forecast for the current year and marginally pared it for next fiscal, citing the drag from higher crude prices and tightening of the global financial situation. But it will remain the fastest-growing major economy, well ahead of China, it said.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF said India will grow 7.3% in FY19 and 7.4% in FY20. It had in January forecast FY20 growth at 7.5%. China is forecast to grow 6.6% and 6.2% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. The Indian economy grew 6.7% in FY18.

“This acceleration reflects a rebound from transitory shocks (the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the national goods and services tax), with strengthening investment and robust private consumption,” the IMF said. The forecast for investment growth in FY19 is weaker than in April, despite higher capital spending. Read the rest of this entry »


Fitch ups India’s growth forecast to 7.8% for FY19

Source: The Economic Times, Sept 22, 2018

Fitch Ratings Friday upped India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.8 per cent, from 7.4 per cent earlier, but flagged rising oil bill and higher interest rates as key concerns.

Fitch, in its Global Economic Outlook, said it expects inflation to rise to the upper end of the central bank’s target band (4 per cent, plus-minus 2 per cent) on relatively high demand-pull pressures and rupee depreciation. “We have revised up our forecast for FY2018-2019 growth to 7.8 per cent from 7.4 per cent on the back of the better-than-expected 2Q18 outturn. India’s growth likely peaked in 2Q18 (April-June) though,” Fitch said.
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Moody’s puts India growth in 2018, 2019 at 7.5%

download (1)Source: The Economic Times, Aug 23, 2018

NEW DELHI: The Indian economy is largely resilient to external pressures and is expected to grow around 7.5% in 2018 and 2019, Moody’s Investors Service said. In its Global Macro Outlook for 2018-19, Moody’s said growth is supported by strong urban and rural demand and improved industrial activity, pointing to the strong PMI and the index of 8 core industries.

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India’s GDP Expected To Grow At 7.4% In FY19 According To FICCI Economic Outlook

Source: Business Standard, Aug 17, 2018

New Delhi: The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey forecasts an annual median GDP growth at 7.4% for 2018-19, with a minimum and maximum range of 7.1% and 7.5%, respectively. The projection is in line with the estimates put out by the Reserve Bank earlier this month.

The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3.0% for 2018-19, with a minimum and maximum range of 2.4% and 4.3%, respectively. The favourable monsoons are expected to bode well for the sector. Although there has been some slippage in the monsoons during the months of June and July, updated forecast for August and September indicate a pick-up in rainfall. Further, industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.9% and 8.3%, respectively in 2018-19.

The survey was conducted during the month of July 2018 amongst economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. Read the rest of this entry »

Indian GDP may moderate to 7.2% in second half of 2018

download (2).jpgSource: The Economic Times, Jul 31, 2018

The Indian economy is likely to have witnessed solid economic growth in the April-June quarter but leading indicators suggest a slowdown in the coming months, says a Nomura report. According to the global financial services major, India’s economic recovery has peaked and growth rates are likely to get constrained in the second half of this year.

“Our proprietary indicators suggest the inflection point for the cyclical recovery may just be around the corner,” Nomura said in a research note.

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IMF trims India’s economic growth forecast to 7.3% in 2018, 7.5% in 2019

Source: Business Standard, Jul 17, 2018

New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has trimmed India’s growth projection by 0.1 percentage point for 2018-19 owing to high oil prices and a tight monetary policy regime.

The effect of the twin headwinds on the IMF’s projection for 2019-20 was much sharper — 0.3 percentage points.

Now, the IMF has forecast India will grow by 7.3 per cent in 2018-19 against the earlier estimate of 7.4 per cent. The economy was projected to grow 7.8 per cent by 2019-20 by the Fund earlier, but now the projection stood at 7.5 per cent, according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, released on Monday.

Even then, the economy would be the fastest-growing one among large nations in 2018-19 and 2019-20.

India’s economy grew at a four-year-low of 6.7 per cent in 2017-18. Read the rest of this entry »

IMF suggests India three steps to sustain high growth rate

Source: The Economic times, Jun 29, 2018

WASHINGTON: To sustain the high growth rate India has achieved, the country should carry out banking sector reforms; continue with fiscal consolidation, simplify and streamline GST; and renew impetus on reforms, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today.

India’s growth accelerated to 7.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of Financial Year (FY) 2017-18. That was up from 7 per cent in the previous quarter.

“We expect the recovery to continue in FY 2018-19. Growth is projected at 7.4 per cent in FY 2018-19 and actually 7.8 percent in FY 19-20, respectively,” IMF Communications Director Gerry Rice told reporters at his fortnightly news conference. Read the rest of this entry »