India’s retail inflation rises to 2.36 percent in July

Source: The Economic Times, Aug 14, 2017

MUMBAI: India’s annual consumer price inflation picked up to 2.36 percent in July from 1.54 percent in June, as a decline in food prices slowed sharply, government data showed on Monday.

The rise was faster than the 1.87 percent forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Inflation was 1.54 percent in June – the slowest pace since India started releasing retail inflation data in January 2012 based on combined data for rural and urban consumers.

Commenting on the figures, Anjali Verma, economist, Phillipcapital India, said: “(Inflation of) 2.36 percent is in line with our expectations. This has largely been led by higher vegetable prices, which is also reflecting in WPI.

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Retail inflation seen picking up for 1st time in 4 months in July

Source: Business Standard, Aug 09, 2017

Bengaluru: India’s retail inflation is expected to have picked up slightly in July after cooling in the previous three months, a Reuters poll showed, but likely remained well below the central bank’s 4 per cent medium-term target.

Much of the increase is attributed to the return of food inflation. Vegetable prices have risen sharply following erratic monsoon rains.

The consumer price index likely rose 1.87 per cent last month, after dipping to a historic low of 1.54 per cent in June, according to the median forecast of nearly 30 economists.

But forecasts ranged from 0.90 per cent to 3.60 per cent. The data is expected to be released on Aug. 14 at 1200 GMT.

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Inflation likely to remain subdued: Assocham

Source: The Economic Times, July 17, 2017

NEW DELHI: Inflation is expected to remain subdued on account of good monsoon and the inability of the industry to raise prices, Assocham today said.

“Going forward, there could be some disruption for one or two vegetables such as tomatoes but overall, the situation is going to remain quite comfortable for the consumers at least till October-November,” the chamber said in a statement.

It said floods in some parts of the country may also play a spoilsport.

However, a vigil needs to be maintained for ensuring that farmers are protected from the market distortions and the procurement agencies like the Food Corporation of India and other government wings are fully geared to lift the farm produce in time and at remunerative rates, it added.”With the country set to reap a record foodgrains production and the industry not enjoying any pricing power, the inflation outlook remains quite muted at least till festival season,” it added.


June WPI inflation falls to 0.90%, lowest since June 2016

Source: Business Standard, July 14, 2017

New Delhi: A massive contraction in food prices dragged India’s annual rate of inflation based on wholesale prices to record low levels of 0.90 per cent in June, official data showed on Friday.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the wholesale price index (WPI), with the revised base year of 2011-12, decelerated further in June 2017 to 0.90 per cent from 2.17 per cent in May as food prices eased.

Wholesale food prices fell 1.25% in June, compared with 0.15% rise a month ago, the data showed.

India’s annual retail inflation eased to 1.54% in June to its slowest pace in more than five years, building pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates when it meets for a policy review on 2 August.

June consumer inflation eases to 1.54%, lowest in new series

Source: Business Standard, July 12, 2017

New Delhi: The country’s annual consumer price inflation further eased to 1.54 per cent in June, helped by a fall in food prices, government data showed on Wednesday.

The rise was slower than 1.70 per cent forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, and was the lowest since India started releasing retail inflation data in January 2012 based on a combined CPI index for rural and urban consumers.

Consumer prices rose 2.18 per cent year-on-year in May.

Retail food prices fell 2.12 per cent last month from a year ago, compared with a 1.05 percent fall in the previous month.

From 11% to 2.2%, Five charts explain vanishing India inflation

Four years ago Indian inflation was running at more than 11 percent. Now it’s melted to a record low 2.2 percent, below Mexico, Turkey and the U.K., as the central bank’s battle against price pressures gains traction.

The slide has prompted the Reserve Bank of India, led by Urjit Patel, to slashed its inflation forecasts and led one members of its six-person monetary policy committee to break ranks at its June 6 announcement, stoking market speculation the bank could next cut rates, perhaps as early as August. Read the rest of this entry »

Low inflation blues may taper off in the second half of FY18

Source: Business Standard, June 14, 2017

New Delhi: Retail price inflation, whose rate fell to the lowest level in May in accordance with the new series, has an upside risk in the second half of the financial year owing to a likely revision in house rent allowances for government employees and an expected rise in the fiscal deficit of the states that are giving a farm debt waiver.

It may touch 4-5.5 per cent in those six months.

The reduction of the consumer price index (CPI) rate to 2.18 per cent in May, close to the floor agreed upon by the government and RBI, may not be as worrisome as it seems currently. The rate was close to 3 per cent in April.

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